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Nvidia retail sentiment reached a fever pitch on Thursday as mom-and-pop investors flooded the market, staging a record-breaking buying spree in the wake of the chipmaker’s latest blockbuster earnings report.
According to data from VandaTrack, the first 80 minutes of Thursday’s session saw the highest level of net retail buying in Nvidia since at least 2012. It was a chaotic, high-stakes opening that underscored the “AI darling’s” unique grip on the public imagination. Yet, in a twist that left many scratching their heads, the stock didn’t just moon—it stumbled.
Despite the wall of money coming from home trading desks, Nvidia shares tumbled more than 4% by midday, proving that even record-breaking enthusiasm can’t always overcome the gravity of institutional profit-taking.
A Tale of Two Trades: The “Epic” Turnover
The sheer volume of activity suggests that while retail traders were buying the dip, someone else was selling the news. Viraj Patel, a lead analyst at VandaTrack, noted that the action wasn’t a simple one-way street.
“Flows have been two-way,” Patel noted in a dispatch to clients. “Total retail turnover in Nvidia has been pretty epic at the start of the session.”
This “two-way” flow explains the jagged, rocky price action seen in morning trading. It’s a classic tug-of-war: on one side, the believers fueled by a 75% revenue jump in Nvidia’s core data center business; on the other, the skeptics or “fast money” funds locking in gains after a massive run-up.
“What we’re seeing is a collision of worlds,” says Elena Rossi, a senior equity strategist at Capital Pulse Research. “Retail is looking at the long-term AI story, which remains incredibly robust. But the ‘smart money’ is often more concerned with the immediate reaction to guidance. If the beat isn’t big enough to satisfy the most aggressive whispers, they exit, and retail is left catching the falling knife.”
Tracking the Shift in Nvidia Retail Sentiment
Interestingly, the exuberance seen on Thursday wasn’t a foregone conclusion. In the five-day lead-up to the earnings call, everyday traders were uncharacteristically reserved. Net flows averaged just $94 million daily—roughly half of the frenzy seen before the previous quarterly report.
It seems the “wait-and-see” approach vanished the moment the numbers hit the tape. Nvidia didn’t just meet expectations; it crushed them, posting a 73% increase in overall sales.
The “Spillover” Effect
The hunger for AI exposure isn’t limited to a single ticker. Patel pointed out significant “spillover buying” in other tech heavyweights and specialized funds. Broadcom and major ETFs like the iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (IGV) all saw a bump in retail activity.
“If this momentum holds, we could be looking at one of the biggest single-stock retail buying days in months,” Patel added. That’s a significant metric for the broader market, as retail participation often serves as a barometer for general “risk-on” appetite in the economy.
Looking Ahead: The 35% Question
Despite the midday slide, the mood on Wall Street remains overwhelmingly “Buy.” Data from LSEG shows that the average analyst price target suggests a potential 35% upside over the next year.
For the person trading from their kitchen table, the message seems clear: the volatility is a feature, not a bug. While the midday 4% drop may smart, the underlying fundamentals of the AI revolution appear intact. The question for the coming weeks is whether the retail crowd has the stomach to hold through the “two-way” churn of a market that is increasingly expensive and notoriously volatile.
