The Fed Rate Decision Lands Today. The Bond Market Already Voted. The Fed rate decision arrives this afternoon, and by the time Kevin Warsh steps to the podium, the actual announcement may be the least surprising part of the day. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.045% intraday Tuesday, surpassing its 2023 peak to hit […] More
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Touched 5%. The Fed’s Decision Is Basically Written. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5% Monday, its highest level since 2023. That single number tells you almost everything about why this market fell for a fourth straight session, and why Wednesday’s Fed decision has stopped being much of a question […] More
AI Stocks Fall on a Safety Warning Nobody Asked For. The Fed’s Still the Bigger Story. AI stocks fall sharply Monday morning after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay urging the industry to slow development of frontier models over safety concerns. Nvidia dropped. AMD fell. Sandisk slid. The S&P 500 opened down 0.75%. The […] More
The August CPI Report Just Made Next Week’s Fed Decision a Lot Easier to Predict. The August CPI report landed Friday morning, and it delivered exactly the outcome Wall Street had been dreading all week. Prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4%, in line with forecasts. The 12-month rate came in at 3.4%. Both numbers matched […] More
The PPI Report Came In Right on Target. Oil Crossing $100 at the Same Moment Wasn’t. The PPI report landed Thursday morning showing wholesale prices rose 0.4% in August, exactly matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast. Core PPI, stripping out food and energy, actually came in a touch cooler than expected, up 0.2% against a […] More
Brent Crude Tops $100. The Timing Couldn’t Be Worse for the Fed. Brent crude tops $100 a barrel Wednesday morning, its highest level since July. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.81%. Rate-sensitive stocks and sectors took the biggest hit of the morning, right as this week’s CPI and PPI inflation data loom on the […] More
Oil Prices Climb, the Dow Sheds 600 Points, and September Keeps Living Up to Its Name. Oil prices climb sharply Tuesday morning as Iran warns it “will take action against any threat,” and the reopening bell after Labor Day didn’t waste any time delivering bad news. The Dow fell 613.60 points, down 1.15%, to 52,800.65. […] More
Oil Prices Rise While Wall Street Takes the Day Off. Tuesday Won’t Be So Quiet. Oil prices rise Monday morning, and the timing couldn’t be worse for anyone hoping for a calm return from the long weekend. U.S. markets are closed for Labor Day. The Strait of Hormuz isn’t taking the holiday off. Brent crude […] More
The August Jobs Report Crushed Estimates. Stocks Fell Anyway. Of Course They Did. The August jobs report landed Friday morning with a number nobody saw coming. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs. Economists expected 55,000. Nearly triple the forecast. The Dow fell 300 points. By now, this pattern shouldn’t surprise anyone following markets this year. […] More
Fed Rate Pause Hopes Just Gave This Market Its Best Afternoon in Weeks. Fed rate pause hopes built steadily through Thursday, and by early afternoon the rally had real teeth. The S&P 500 gained 0.90%, up to 7,735.91. The Dow surged 598 points, or 1.13%, to 53,660.29. The Nasdaq climbed to 26,542.26. The 10-year Treasury […] More
The ADP Jobs Report Just Showed the Slowest Hiring in Months. Yields Didn’t Care. The ADP jobs report landed Wednesday morning with a number that should’ve been the whole story. Private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August. Down from 46,000 in July. Below the 47,000 economists expected. The slowest pace of hiring in months. […] More
Treasury Yields Surge to a 2025 High. September Just Announced Itself. Treasury yields surge Tuesday morning to their highest levels since early 2025, and the new month didn’t waste any time living up to its reputation. The S&P 500 fell to its lowest point since August 4. Brent crude climbed toward $93 a barrel. The […] More